Russia Is Going To Invade Ukraine - My Analysis
A thorough analysis shows that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia is much more likely than not. Here are six reasons why I think an invasion is likely.
Yesterday, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron met with President Putin in an attempt to ease the tensions currently simmering in Ukraine. Macron seemed to pursue a message of an agreement to peace, yet Russia threw cold-water on that idea this morning. The Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov stated that he would “not confirm any tangible steps toward a resolution” , countering Macron’s narrative that he convinced Putin not to escalate.
As I stated on my podcast last week, in my analysis it seems Putin is likely to invade at least some portion of Ukraine between February 15 and March 15. If March 15 passes with no invasion, I will say it is likely that a de-escalation will occur. If you are interested in listening to the podcast, here is the link to the latest episode: https://www.callin.com/episode/russiachina-alliance-trading-strategies-gixJORwVyk
Here are my six reasons why I think invasion is very likely:
If Putin backs down again, the west will continue to call his bluff on further escalations.
Last Spring, after the increasing rhetoric of President Putin stating that Ukraine was not an independent country, but rather, just a region of Russia, it seemed fairly obvious that Putin was testing the waters for his plan to re-integrate Ukraine back into the Russian fold. Putin moved a large amount of troops to the border of Ukraine, leading some to speculate he may further escalate the on-going civil war between Russian-back separatists and the Ukrainian Army in the Donbass region. However, no escalation occurred, leading some to speculate that Putin has discovered a tool to “rattle” Nato by massing large amounts of troops on the border with Ukraine as a threat, more than an actual invasion force.
I think this is misguided. In my opinion, the spring troop build-up was a test-run for the winter buildup that is occurring right now. Putin has shown that he is a very careful and calculating leader. With the Russian Army newly re-built, they would likely need a big training exercise to deal with the immense undertaking required to stage for, then invade a large country with a standing army and Nato backing. If Putin builds a force this large and again does not invade, it is likely the world, and his citizens will view him as a non-serious threat in the future. I do not think he has the option to de-escalate at this point.
The Russian dis-information campaign as well as anti-western rhetoric has reached extreme proportions.
It is difficult to keep up with all the news stories both from western media outlets as well as Russian-sponsored media outlets. However, one thing is clear, the information war on both sides has been heating up. The western media continues to state that a Russian invasion is “imminent” and that Russia plans to stage a “false-flag” attack using crisis actors pretending to be victims of such an attack. Additionally, Russian-backed media have been producing news stories stating that Ukraine is going to attack Russian forces currently occupying eastern Ukraine, as well as planning to use hidden terrorist cells to attack Russian forces in Syria.
When people are so overwhelmed with a large amount of information they have difficulty discerning factual information from fiction. This plays into Russia’s advantage if they were to invade Ukraine because the mass amount of information provides a sense of legitimacy for an invasion. The pre-text now is that Russia was defending itself by invading or that Nato was the true aggressor in the situation by sending weapons to Ukraine and spewing anti-Russian rhetoric.
The types of weaponry being moved to the Ukrainian border is indicative of conflict, not exercises.
There are numerous twitter accounts that are specialize in tracking Russian troop and weapons movements. One of the accounts that seems to be the most legitimate is Rob Lee, a PHD candidate at the department of War Studies in London. His twitter handle is @RALEE85. Rob has concluded that 11 out of Russia’s 12 “Battalion Tactical Groups” (BTG’s), have been moved to the border of Ukraine, totaling approximately 130,000 Russian soldiers, with another 200,000 Russian Army Reservists on alert. In addition, there are a large amount of Iksander M- Short Range Ballistic missile systems, logistical equipment, bridge building equipment, a large assortment of tanks, armored personnel carries, medical supplies and housing units for troops.
In addition, and most disturbingly Russia has deployed a number of weapons to Belarus and the Ukraine border that are designed to deter Nato from getting involved if Russia decides to escalate in Ukraine. These weapons include extremely long range missiles, such as the Russian MIG-31K which from Belarus can reach London, Paris and Rome, high level electronic warfare systems used to prevent jamming of Russian equipment, and multiple air defense systems such as the Bus-M1-2 air defense vehicle. There is a low likelihood that this equipment is being moved simply as a way to squeeze concessions out of Nato. It seems as if this equipment is being moved in anticipation of a wider conflict.
Troop and equipment movement of this magnitude is extremely expensive.
To move large amounts of troops and equipment throughout a large land-mass country such as Russia, requires significant personnel and finances. There have been videos posted all over the internet of Russian military equipment being moved towards Ukraine either in convoys or loaded onto cargo trains. This is an extremely expensive undertaking in both man-power needed to load the equipment as well as the finances required for moving it. There are fuel costs, maintenance costs, and the man-power costs of loading and unloading the equipment. This is an extreme financial under-taking for a bluff.
Putin is concerned about his legacy, not his citizens.
As I stated in previous articles, Putin is the lead decision maker on whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine. A large majority of analysts fail to understand Putin’s mentality and instead view him from the lens of a rational actor. It is very common to read an analysis of a potential Russian invasion that spends enormous effort on measuring the economic cost or the casualty rate that the Russian Army may face attempting to seize further territory in Ukraine. This is an impractical analytical framework to judge the decision-making of President Putin.
One of the best quotes I have heard about Russian history is that “the Russian people favor leaders who have increased their territory, not leaders who have maintained peace.” This statement may explain Putin’s mindset. Putin has been the leader of Russia for twenty-two years. He came to power in 2000, seven years after the last domino in the Soviet Empire crumbled and he has stated that, “the fall of the Soviet Empire was a great tragedy to the world.” Putin, at age 70, has secured power and wealth beyond the wildest dreams of most men. At this point, he is likely looking towards his legacy, and how he will be remembered after his death. If you look at the Ukraine situation through this lens, as opposed to the lens of a rational actor, it is likely he will attempt to “restore the greatness of the Russian empire” as his final actions as President. This likely means brining Ukraine back into the Russian-fold.
The Russia- Chinese alliance is the last piece Putin needed to go forward.
The two biggest deterrent’s to Putin’s expansionist plans are fear of financial sanctions and leaving his country vulnerable to attack with such a large percentage of his troops involved in a potential war in Ukraine. With the recent Russia- Chinese alliance, it seems as it Putin may have solved both of these issues. Russia and China met last week and put out a very forceful statement announcing their newly formed friendship. The countries entered into a trade agreement where China agreed to buy $117 billion worth of oil and gas from Russia.
Additionally, the two countries endorsed each other’s foreign policy with Russia affirming China’s opposition to “any forms of independence of Taiwan” and China denouncing “further enlargement of NATO.” The statement published after their meeting further stated, there are “no limits” to the two’s “friendship” and “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation,” suggesting that they would back each other on foreign policy goals.
This strategic alliance helps Russia avoid the full bite of US sanctions if Russia further escalates tensions by having a strategic trading partner. In addition, the alliance allows Putin to feel more comfortable moving a large amount of troops and military equipment away from the south and east in protection against China to join in the Ukraine fight. The alliance creates a situation where Putin is free to focus on expansionist goals and not have to worry about an over-extension of his armed forces.
The ground is likely to be at its most frozen point around February 15. God Speed. Pray for Peace.
-Russell Warren
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